Ashok Leyland slumps 14% on demand worries

Shares of Ashok Leyland on Wednesday slumped nearly 14% as analysts expressed concerns over demand uncertainty and high competition after the government brought in new axle norms for load carrying capacity.

The stock plunged 13.93% to settle at Rs 110.60 on BSE. During the day, it tanked 14.90% to Rs 109.35.

On NSE, shares of the company dived 14% to close at Rs 110.45. The company’s market valuation also declined by Rs 5,150.49 crore to Rs 32,462.51 crore.

In terms of equity volume, 103.30 lakh shares of the company were traded on BSE and over 12 crore shares changed hands at NSE during the day.

Macquarie said it maintains underperform on Ashok Leyland, given demand uncertainty in the near term, high competitive intensity, and expensive valuations.

Macquarie said the government had raised the maximum safe axle weight of commercial vehicles by 20-25%. The report said the new norms would increase available road freight capacity, which would likely result in lower fleet utilisations and softer freight rates.

“Government notification is silent on whether the norms will be applicable only to new vehicles or to all trucks. In either scenario, we expect sales of new CVs to be adversely impacted in the near term,” the note said.

“Ashok Leyland’s Q1FY19 EBITDA grew 112% y-o-y to Rs 6.5 billion, which was 2% lower than our estimate. Sales volume grew 48% y-o-y off a low base, but lagged domestic commercial vehicle (CV) industry’s Q1 growth of 52%,” the note added.

Ashok Leyland on Tuesday posted a revenue of Rs 6,250 crore for Q1 FY19 against Bloomberg consensus estimate of Rs 6,349 crore. However, the company posted a net profit of Rs 370 crore in Q1 FY19 against Bloomberg consensus estimate of Rs 352 crore.

Nomura in its note said the aggressive focus by Tata Motors to gain market share and Ashok Leyland’s market share loss in Q 1FY19 remain concerns.

Ashok Leyland’s stock has declined 7.18 % since the beginning of 2018. However, analysts are generally bullish on the stock. Out of 47 analysts who track the company on Bloomberg, 33 have a ‘buy’ rating; seven have a ‘sell’ rating, and seven have a ‘hold.’

Ashok Leyland Limited