The stock market continued to log gains. Even though earnings have not been great, better-than-expected macro numbers and hopes of Budget sops are keeping the bulls in business. Nobody was expecting strong Q3 numbers, given demonetisation and poor bank credit, but the low expectations mean that, for example, a positive Index of Industrial Production for November is being seen as a positive.
The Nifty has moved steadily up since it broke out past the 200-Day Moving Average (now around 8,300). Logging values above 8,400 leaves the bullish trend intact and, if we go by pre-Budget trading history, it could run up till the Budget. As of now, the rising commodity cycle is being seen as a positive, boosting the returns; it could turn worrisome if crude moves above $60 a barrel for the Indian basket.