Analyst corner: Expect AHCLL to break even at Ebitda level in H2FY20

Apollo Hospitals (APHS) reported Q1FY20 results on August 13. For the quarter, revenues came in at Rs 22.3 bn, up 17% y-y and 2% above our forecast of Rs 21.8 bn. EBITDA pre IND AS 116 acc-ounting change was at Rs 2.7 bn, up 21% y-y and 3% ahead of our estimate. Repo-rted PAT came in at Rs 793 mn, 1% below our estimate. EBITDA margin pre IND AS 116 was at 12.3%, higher by 43bp y-y and 11bp against our estimate. This was due to positive surprise in EBITDA marg-in of new hospitals ex-Proton that was at 8.3% vs our estimate of 5.8%.

Revenue came in at Rs 9.2 bn, up 14% y-y and 1% above our estimate. EBITDA margin pre IND AS 116 was at 22.1%. Management continues to guide for old hospitals’ EBITDA margin to expand to 23%. Revenue at Rs 2.55 bn, up 20% y-y and 2% below our estimate. EBITDA ma-rgin pre IND AS 116 is at 8.3% in Q1FY20 vs 5.1% in Q1FY19. For Q1FY20, Proton accounted for Rs 8 mn revenue and EBIT-DA loss of Rs 80 mn. Full-year FY20 losses to be in range of Rs 200-250 mn, as per management, below our current estimate of Rs 348 mn.

Total capacity of 225 beds, out of which 200 were occupied. EBITDA for Q1FY20 at INR28 mn and full-year target of EBITDA INR300 mn, as per manage-ment. Our current estimate is at Rs 243 mn. Revenue at Rs 10.6 bn, up 18% y-y and 4% above our estimate. EBITDA margin for SAP is rising consistently and is at 5.6% for Q1FY20 vs 4.1% in Q1FY19. Private label for the company is around 7% vs 6.5% in Q1FY19. Management ex-pects private label contribution rise to 10% over the next 2-3 years. Some initia-tives such as raising number of SKU’s and improving packaging could contri-bute to the growth. SAP ROCE is at 24% in Q1FY20 and could rise to 30-35% due to higher contribution from private labe-ls, as per management. Revenue at Rs 1.6 bn, up 23% y-y. Importantly AHLL EBIT-DA loss has come down significantly to Rs 47 mn vs Rs 197 mn in Q1FY19 and Rs 97 mn in Q4FY19. We expect AHLL to break even at EBITDA level in H2FY20.

Apollo Hospitals