After the recent correction in NTPC’s share price,we upgrade it to buy as valuation at 1SD below mean could rerate on the back of: a potential cut in interest rates; & initiation of two structural reforms –policy mandating shut down of inefficient and old power plants,and policy permitting optimisation of coal usage.
However, decline in interest rates could persuad the Central Electricity and Regulatory Commission to cut FY20- 24 regulated RoE, and thus, we build 100 bp cutin regulated RoE to 14.5%. Despite lowering our RoE estimates, we expect EPS growth of 20% in FY19E/20E, RoE of 12% by FY 20E led by 19 GW capacity addition in FY18-20.