Venezuela needs $183 bn till 2040 to boost crude oil output to 3 mbpd
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Venezuela would need to invest around $183 billion over the next 15 years through 2040 to boost crude oil output to 3 million barrels per day (bpd), a level last achieved in the late 1990s, from the current production level of 1.1 mbpd, according to Rystad Energy.
After the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, American President Donald Trump said that US oil companies would take control of Venezuela’s crude production and “rebuild the oil infrastructure” of the country.
The energy research firm believes that around $53 billion of oil and gas upstream and infrastructure investment would be needed over the next 15 years just to keep Venezuela’s crude oil production flat at 1.1 million bpd. Only 300,000 bpd of additional supply can be restored within the next 2-3 years with limited incremental spending, it added.
To boost output beyond the 1.4 million bpd level would be possible with a stable investment of $8-9 billion per year from 2026 to 2040, on top of ‘hold-flat’ capital requirements. Venezuelan crude oil production could then recover to 2 million bpd by 2032 and to 3 million bpd by 2040, the firm said in a report.
“While some of this investment can be financed organically by national oil company PDVSA, at least $30-35 billion of international capital would need to be committed in the next 2-3 years to make a 3 million bpd-by-2040 scenario plausible,” said Rystad Energy.
Venezuela produces only about 0.8 per cent of global crude output despite holding 18 per cent of the world’s oil reserves, reflecting years of underinvestment and infrastructure constraints. China and the US are currently the largest buyers of Venezuelan oil.
Indian companies like Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Reliance Industries (RIL) could be the beneficiaries of the resumption of Venezuelan oil and gas production. ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) holds stake in two Venezuelan oil fields, San Cristobal and Carabobo-1.
OVL had acquired 40 per cent participating interest in the San Cristobal project in 2008. It had made a cumulative investment of $529.33 million in the oilfield and $240.66 million in another project, Carobobo-1, till March 31, 2025. Accounted by OVL as impairment in its books, the company currently has dividends of over $500 million from the San Cristobal project due to sanctions.
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