Pakistan modernising nuclear arsenal to counter India's edge: US intel

Pakistan is advancing its nuclear arsenal and related capabilities to offset India’s conventional military advantage, according to a US intelligence report. The report warns that Islamabad’s efforts to modernise its battlefield nuclear weapons remain a top priority alongside counterterrorism operations and cross-border skirmishes with regional neighbours.

The '2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment' report, released by the US Defence Intelligence Agency, notes that Pakistan perceives India as an "existential threat" and is likely to continue investing in nuclear and military modernisation, despite losing more than 2,500 people to militant violence in 2024.

Islamabad is also focusing on maintaining the security of its nuclear materials and command-and-control infrastructure. Notably, some reports claimed that an underground nuclear storage facility in Pakistan's Kirana Hills was targeted by the Indian armed forces during the recent 'Operation Sindoor'. However, India denied hitting any such targets.

After the April 22 terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam, India conducted precision strikes in Pakistan under 'Operation Sindoor', which was followed by days of cross-border missile and artillery fire. Despite these hostilities, both sides reached a ceasefire understanding by May 10.

Pakistan dependence on 'Iron Brother' China

The report notes that China’s economic and military support plays a crucial role in Pakistan’s defence posture. The US intelligence assessment highlights Pakistan’s near-certain procurement of weapons of mass destruction (WMD)-applicable goods from foreign suppliers, primarily through Chinese support. These materials and technology are reportedly acquired via Chinese suppliers and intermediaries, with transit routes through Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkiye, and the UAE.

Pakistani forces conduct multiple joint military exercises with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), including an air exercise in November 2024.

However, Islamabad’s growing reliance on Beijing has also led to friction. Seven Chinese nationals working on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects were killed in attacks in Pakistan last year, the report states.

The intelligence report also highlights tensions between Pakistan with Iran and the Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. In early 2024, Islamabad and Tehran engaged in high-level talks after conducting unilateral airstrikes on each other’s territories in January.

Separately, the Taliban and Pakistani border forces clashed near border posts in September 2024, resulting in the death of eight Taliban fighters. In March 2025, Pakistan and Afghanistan exchanged air and artillery strikes, each blaming the other’s territory for harbouring militant infrastructure.

India’s perspective

The US intel report contrasts Pakistan’s military efforts with India’s own security posture. According to the report, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s priorities are focused on countering Chinese influence, bolstering military capabilities, and enhancing New Delhi’s leadership in the region.

The intel report says that India continues to advance its domestic defence production and expand regional defence partnerships through exercises and multilateral forums like the Quadrilateral, Brics, and Asean. India also remains reliant on Russian spare parts to maintain its Russian-origin military assets, despite reducing new procurements from Moscow.