Reliance Industries gains 5% in three days ahead of Q3 results

Shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) were trading higher for the third straight trading session, gaining 1.2 per cent to Rs 1,148 apiece on the BSE on Thursday in an otherwise range-bound market ahead of its December quarter (Q3FY19) result today.

In the past three trading sessions, RIL has risen 5 per cent, as compared to 1.3 per cent rise in the S&P BSE Sensex.

Since October 17, 2018, after the September quarter (Q2FY19) results, RIL had underperformed the market by falling 4.5 per cent, against 3 per cent rise in the benchmark index till Monday.

Mukesh Ambani-led RIL is expected to take a further hit on its gross refining margins (GRM), which have touched a multi-year low for Q3FY19. Overall profit of the company is expected to see a marginal year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth with higher petrochemicals earnings. With most digital business announcements now officially made, analysts add there may not be much to look for in the management guidance by RIL.

GRM is what a refiner makes for converting one barrel of crude oil into fuel.

“We expect RIL to report GRM of USD 7.5/bbl v/s USD 11.6/bbl in Q3FY18 and USD 9.5/bbl in Q2FY19. This implies a premium of USD 3.2/bbl over SG GRM. Petrochemical segment is expected to do better due to healthy deltas and strong volume growth in the segment. Positive developments in the telecom and retail segments should drive growth further for the company,” Motilal Oswal Securities said results preview.

Analysts at Prabhudas Lilladher expect RIL to post muted earnings growth due to weak refining earnings even as strong petrochemicals earnings and rupee depreciation will support earnings.

Analysts with Morgan Stanley, in a report on RIL, noted the last 2 years of strong outperformance was primarily driven by very strong delivery on Jio (+250mn subscribers) and markets re-rating the retail and digital businesses even as the core refining and Petchem businesses did very well. Markets broadly ignored the surge in Capex and net debt.

“In our view, while in 2019 we should continue to see strong performance in Retail and Digital, the core refining and Petchem segments are critical for share price performance”, analysts with the brokerage wrote in a January 2 report on RIL.

RIL has corrected 14 per cent from its all-time high level of Rs 1,329 touched on August 28, 2018, on the BSE.

Reliance Industries Limited (RIL)