Weekly review: Sensex ends 609 points up on RBI rate cut hopes

Firm global cues, US Federal Reserve decision to maintain status quo on interest rates and continued negative WPI inflation, giving renewed impetus for a rate cut by the RBI in its monetary policy review scheduled on September 29 and a sharp appreciation in rupee helped the bulls to stage a strong performance on the street. Key benchmark indices registered a sharp rise of over 2 per cent for the week ended September 18.

The BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty advanced 608.70 points and 192.60 points to 26,218.91 and 7,981.90 on September 18 from 25,610.21 and 7,789.30 on September 11.

Barring the Consumer Durables index (down 3.30 per cent), Capital Goods index (down 2.41 per cent) and Auto index (down 0.43 per cent, rest all other sectoral indices on the Bombay Stock Exchange ended the week in green. The BSE Bankex jumped the most— 5.05 per cent at 19952.94, it was followed by BSE Power index (up 3.72 per cent), BSE Realty index (up 3.72 per cent) and BSE Healthcare index (up 3.06 per cent).

In the 30-share index, share price of Axis Bank, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, NTPC, Wipro and State Bank of India jumped 7.48 per cent, 7.04 per cent, 6.32 per cent, 5.92 per cent and 5.30 per cent to Rs 517.30, Rs 905.10, Rs 127.05, Rs 590.30 and Rs 242.35, respectively, during the week. On the other hand, Tata Motors, Larsen and Toubro and Tata Steel plunged 4.96 per cent, 3.70 per cent and 1.93 per cent to Rs 328.40, Rs 1540 and Rs 228.55, respectively, during the same period.

Shreyash Devalkar, fund manager, equities, BNP Paribas Mutual Fund, said, “A host of positive data released at the end of the week pointed towards a steady improvement in the Indian economy and gave a fillip to the stock market. BoP data showed that India’s current account deficit (CAD) narrowed down to $6.2 billion (1.2 per cent of GDP) in Q1 June 2015 from $7.8 billion (1.6% of GDP) a year ago, while IIP for the month of July 2015 increased by 4.2% yoy.”

Inflation figures eased further in the month on August and raised hopes for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India. CPI eased to 3.66 per cent in August from 3.69 per cent in July while WPI stood at -4.95% for August against a reading of -4.05% in July.

Hitesh Agrawal, head research, Reliance Securities, said, “Indian indices continued to build on their gains from the previous week, as the US Fed postponed the interest rate lift-off citing the recent financial and economic market developments. Its commentary was also dovish indicating of a reduced probability of a US rate hike in calendar 2015. This is a sigh of relief in the interim for emerging markets like India. The Nifty surged around 2.5 per cent, which was also supported by the better-than-expected July IIP growth at 4.2 per cent and sustained low inflation data points for August.”

After weeks of uncertainty and market churning debate the Federal Reserve on September 17 left interest rates unchanged, thereby prolonging an era of near zero interest rates in the US. However, the Fed chairman indicated that a rate hike is still likely this year.

“Trend in global markets reacting on outcome of US Fed rate holding the key rates steady, interest of foreign portfolio investors, rupee movement and commodity prices globally will dictate the trend on the bourses. The BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty may remain volatile with positive bias in the week ahead,” said, Gaurav Jain, director, Hem Securities.