India's monsoon starts nearly 40% below normal as El Niño disrupts weather

India’s monsoon has had an unusually weak start and the lackluster rainfall is likely to persist, threatening crops and industrial activity as the El Niño weather phenomenon takes hold.

Nationwide monsoon rainfall was nearly 40 per cent below normal as of Wednesday, according to the latest data from the India Meteorological Department. The season runs from June through September and is responsible for the bulk of the country’s annual rainfall. The poor start is hampering the growing season for staples from rice to soybeans, as well as disrupting key sectors like construction.

It’s one of the first indicators of how El Niño — which recently emerged — is beginning to upend global weather norms. The climate pattern is historically associated with dryness in South Asia, and US scientists expect it to be one of the strongest on record. Weather models are currently predicting abnormal dryness to persist in India through July and August, particularly over its northwest and central regions.

“We do not currently see a signal strong enough to recover the existing national rainfall deficit back toward normal,” said Takahisa Nishikawa, senior decision support meteorologist at Atmospheric G2. “The expected improvement looks more like a temporary or regional pickup rather than a full-scale normalisation of the monsoon.”

Monsoonal rains that sweep across India are crucial for the country’s agriculture and energy industries. The country is one of the world’s largest producers of rice, sugar and cotton, and farmers depend on the seasonal deluges to irrigate their fields. Poor harvests raise the risk that authorities could impose export restrictions.

Mumbai’s water authority also recently suspended supplies to construction sites, the first such intervention in 12 years on developers. The agency has reduced distribution to business, factories and sports clubs stopped supplying to swimming pools.

There may be slight improvements to rainfall next week, helped by moist southwesterly winds that will allow the monsoon to continue advancing north into early July, but broader conditions remain unfavorable beyond that period, Nishikawa said.

“The poor monsoon start is already showing up in our crop-weather alerts, with new severe dry alerts for India soybean and groundnut areas,” said Fergus Keatinge, vice president at Marcus Weather Inc. The unseasonal dryness may persist into July, likely delaying soybean seeding and shortening the growing season, he added.

Farmers are in the midst of the biggest planting period of the year, and crop conditions have time to recover if rains pick up soon. Still, official forecasts point toward the weakest monsoon in more than a decade.

“The developing strong El Niño is a key driver, as it raises the risk of a weaker and more uneven Indian monsoon,” Keatinge said.