Iran warns Bab al-Mandeb could shut: What it means for global trade routes

As global supply chains remain affected by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a senior Iranian adviser has warned that Tehran’s allies could shut the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, another key global shipping route, if pressure on Iran continues.

Ali Akbar Velayati, a former Iranian foreign minister and adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, issued the warning on social media. “The unified command of the Resistance front views Bab al-Mandeb as it does Hormuz,” Velayati wrote on X. “If the White House dares to repeat its foolish mistakes, it will soon realise that the flow of global energy and trade can be disrupted with a single move.”

His remarks followed US President Donald Trump's threat to strike Iran’s power plants and bridges if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas passes.

While Iran has said Hormuz remains open to ships from countries negotiating safe passage, it has warned the US and Israel that they will not be allowed through.

If the Bab al-Mandeb Strait is also disrupted, analysts say the impact could go far beyond the current conflict, potentially affecting global trade and energy supplies.

Where is the Bab al-Mandeb Strait?

The Bab al-Mandeb Strait lies between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa. It connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, which then opens into the Indian Ocean.

At its narrowest point, the strait is about 29 km wide, allowing ships to pass through two narrow channels for inbound and outbound traffic.

The waterway is strategically important because it links shipping routes between Asia, Europe and West Asia.

The region around the strait is also influenced by Yemen’s Houthi movement, which is backed by Iran and is part of what Tehran calls the “Axis of Resistance”, a network of allied groups across the region.

Why is the strait important for global energy trade?

The Bab al-Mandeb Strait is one of the world’s most critical shipping routes. It serves as a key pathway for oil shipments from West Asia to Europe and Asia through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.

In 2024, around 4.1 billion barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum products passed through the strait -- roughly 5 per cent of global supply, the news report said.

The route is also used by Gulf producers to send oil to Europe via Egypt’s Suez Canal or the Suez-Mediterranean pipeline.

With the Strait of Hormuz facing disruption, the Bab al-Mandeb route has become even more important. Saudi Arabia, for instance, has increasingly relied on its Red Sea port of Yanbu to ship crude through this route.

To move oil there, the kingdom uses the East-West Pipeline -- a 1,200-km pipeline linking the Abqaiq processing centre near the Gulf to Yanbu on the Red Sea.

A report by Al Jazeera, citing data from energy intelligence firm Kpler, stated the pipeline carried an average of 770,000 barrels per day in January and February. After the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, flows increased sharply and reached the pipeline’s capacity of about 7 million barrels per day by the end of March.

How much global trade depends on the Bab al-Mandeb route?

The strait carries far more than oil. Roughly 10 per cent of global trade passes through the Bab al-Mandeb, including container shipments travelling from China, India and other Asian economies to Europe.

If both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb were blocked, analysts cited by Al Jazeera say nearly a quarter of the world’s oil and gas supply could be disrupted, the news report said.

Such a scenario would likely drive up energy prices and affect supply chains worldwide -- from manufacturing to household fuel costs.

Could Iran’s allies actually disrupt the route?

Yes. Analysts say Iran-aligned groups have already demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping in the region, the news report said.

During Israel’s war in Gaza, Yemen’s Houthi movement targeted vessels that it said were linked to Israel or the United States. The attacks led to rising insurance costs and reduced traffic through the Red Sea shipping lane.

In May 2025, the US and the Houthis reached a ceasefire agreement, after which shipping activity resumed. However, recent events suggest disruptions could happen again.

Since late March, the Houthis have launched missiles and drones at Israel, signalling their involvement in the broader regional conflict.

What would happen if the Bab al-Mandeb is closed?

A closure of the strait would create a major disruption in global trade.

The news report quoted Elisabeth Kendall, a West Asia specialist, as saying that simultaneous disruptions in both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb would be particularly damaging.

“Because if you have restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz at the same time as restrictions are escalating in the Bab al-Mandeb, then you really will disrupt, if not cripple, trade toward Europe,” she told Al Jazeera.

However, Kendall also suggested that the Houthis may be cautious about triggering a wider conflict. While controlling the strait could give them strategic leverage, such a move might provoke a strong response from Saudi Arabia or other regional power.