India-US trade deal: Boost seen for energy, minerals imports over 5 yrs

India intends to purchase energy, minerals, technology products and aircraft parts worth $500 billion from the US over the next five years, according to the joint statement issued earlier in the day by the two countries on an interim framework for a bilateral trade deal, which includes additional market access commitments and support for more resilient supply chains.

While the commerce ministry did not share details of specific energy items for imports or their volumes covered under the interim deal, data shows significant strength in US oil imports to India over the past few months.

"From an energy perspective, within the $500 billion imports basket, we could have items like traditional crude, shale oil and gas, and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) apart from, of course, coking coal," said a senior analyst from an accounting and consultancy firm. "The details are awaited but one will have to look at the specifics on the quality of (energy) molecules, technology and cost involved," he added.

India imported 243 million tonne (MT) crude oil worth $137 billion last financial year. The country's crude oil imports from the US nearly doubled to 13 MT between April and November 2025, up from around 7.1 MT in the same period in 2024.

India's crude oil imports from the US have already jumped sharply over the past two months, rising to 218,400 barrels per day (bpd) in January from their December level of 70,600 bpd, making the US India's fifth largest oil supplier. With the interim deal in place, and the availability of the Venezuelan crude as well, the bilateral oil trade could see a significant boost.

However, any increase in oil imports from the US, while phasing down Russian oil imports, would have to factor in three factors: deep discounts offered by Russia, higher freight and logistics cost in importing from the US, and the fact that most Indian refineries are compatible with the medium-sour crude grades from Russia rather than the lighter, sweet US crude. The terms sour and sweet, when used for crude oil, refer to higher and lower sulphur content as well as some heavy metals, respectively.

Russia currently accounts for 30 per cent of India's oil imports, a significant jump over the 2-3 per cent before the Russian-Ukraine war that began in February 2022.