Bihar exit polls: NDA likely to get majority; Jan Suraaj may struggle

Exit polls for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections suggest that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is on track to retain power with a comfortable majority. However, the biggest surprise from the exit polls is the failure of Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party, which may only secure 0-5 seats, according to most pollsters.

The estimates show the NDA could win between 130 and 167 seats in the 243-member House, while the Mahagathbandhan is projected to secure around 70-100 seats.

What exit polls show

According to the Bhaskar exit poll, the NDA is projected to win 145-160 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan is expected to secure 73–91 seats and Jan Suraaj Party may get around 5-10 seats.

The Chanakya exit poll too estimates that the NDA will win 130-138 seats in the Bihar Assembly elections, while the Mahagathbandhan will get around 100-108 seats. The agency estimates that Others are likely to secure 3-5 seats.

According to the Matrize exit poll, the NDA is expected to bag 147-167 seats, the Mahagathbandhan may win 70–90 seats, and Jan Suraaj Party is projected to get 2-10 seats. The People’s Pulse exit poll too predicts that the NDA will secure 133–159 seats in the Bihar polls 2025. The agency estimates that the Mahagathbandhan will win 75-101 seats, and Others may get 2-13 seats.

Bhaskar
NDA: 145-160
Mahagathbandhan: 73-91
Others: 5-10

Chanakya
NDA: 130-138
Mahagathbandhan: 100-108
Others: 3-5

Matrize
NDA: 147-167
Mahagathbandhan 70-90
Others: 2-10

People's Pulse
NDA: 133-159
Mahagathbandhan: 75-101
Others: 2-13

Overall, the trend across polls indicates a likely NDA lead over the Opposition alliance.

Polling phases and voter turnout

Voting for the 243 constituencies in Bihar took place in two phases -- the first on November 6 and the second on November 11. The vote counting will be held on November 14.

According to the final electoral rolls, Bihar has 74.2 million registered voters, including 39.2 million men and 35 million women.

The voter turnout in the second phase stood at 67.14 per cent till 5 pm on Tuesday, higher than 60.18 per cent recorded in the first phase, according to the Election Commission of India. The highest turnout was recorded in Kishanganj (76.26 per cent), followed by Katihar (75.23 per cent), Purnia (73.79 per cent), Supaul (70.69 per cent), Purvi Champaran (69.02 per cent) and Banka (68.91 per cent).

NDA vs Mahagathbandhan: The key players

The NDA comprises the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Janata Dal (United), Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM). The Mahagathbandhan includes the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Congress, Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), and the Left parties -- CPI, CPI-ML and CPI(M).

In the 2020 Assembly elections, the NDA had won 125 seats, while the Opposition alliance secured 110 seats.

What are exit polls?

Exit polls are post-voting surveys conducted among voters as they leave polling stations. They provide an early indication of how the electorate may have voted.

However, experts caution that these predictions are not always accurate. Their reliability depends on sampling methods, margins of error, and voter honesty during responses.

Despite these limitations, exit polls remain a key part of election coverage, shaping public discussion and political narratives ahead of official results.

Under Section 126A of the *Representation of the People Act, 1951, conducting or publishing exit polls before polling concludes is prohibited to prevent influence on voter behaviour during elections.

Tejashwi Yadav’s CM chances in doubt?

Tejashwi Prasad Yadav’s bid to become Bihar’s Chief Minister in the 2025 elections is being seen as a major test of his leadership. The Mahagathbandhan had chosen him as its face to challenge the ruling JD(U)-BJP alliance. But according to exit polls, the NDA is likely to win a clear majority, leaving the Grand Alliance far behind and putting Tejashwi’s CM hopes in trouble.

This is Tejashwi’s first Assembly election as the official CM candidate of the Grand Alliance. He has promised government jobs for every family, better safety for women and stronger law and order. His campaign directly targeted the NDA’s performance and Prime Minister Modi’s comments on Bihar’s development. The election also carried emotional weight, as it tested the Yadav family’s long-standing political legacy and Tejashwi’s hold over his Raghopur seat.

However, exit polls suggest that the Grand Alliance may fall short of the numbers needed to form the government -- a big blow for Tejashwi and his allies, and a setback to his CM ambitions for now.

BJP’s aggressive campaign and Modi’s role

The BJP ran an intense campaign in Bihar, making full use of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity. PM Modi addressed several rallies across the state, focusing on infrastructure growth, development and welfare schemes. Now, with the exit polls out, these efforts seem to have paid off.