Delhi Assembly elections: Most exit polls give BJP clear edge over AAP

Most of the dozen agencies, barring two, that conducted exit polls for the Delhi Assembly elections predicted on Wednesday evening that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance was set to secure a majority in the 70-member House. The BJP last secured a majority in the Delhi Assembly in 1993. Delhi did not have an Assembly between 1956 to 1993.

The polling for the Delhi Assembly concluded on Wednesday evening, with a 58 per cent voter turnout, subject to revision, till the reports had come in. The voter turnout in the 2020 Assembly polls was 62.55 per cent and 67.12 per cent, both of which were marked by an Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) sweep.

Only two exit polls, Mind Brink and Wee Preside, predicted a victory for the AAP. The rest, including People’s Insight, Matrize, PMarq and Chanakya Strategies, said the BJP-led NDA was on course not just to better its 2013 performance, which was its best since 1993, but secure a majority. The BJP contested 68 of the 70 seats, while one each was contested by its allies, the Janata Dal (United) and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas).

Among the exit polls that predicted a BJP victory, the People's Pulse showed the party was likely to get 51 to 60 seats, while the AAP may get 10-19 seats. According to People's Insight exit poll, the NDA is likely to get 40 to 44 seats, the AAP 25 to 29 seats, and the Congress 0-1 seat.

The P-Marq exit poll predicted 39-49 seats for the BJP and its allies, 21-31 seats for AAP and 0-1 for the Congress.

The JVC exit poll said the BJP and allies would get 39-45, the AAP 22-31 seats and the Congress 0-2.

Similarly, the Poll Diary predicted 42-50 seats of the BJP and allies, while giving the AAP 18-25 seats, 0-2 for the Congress and 0-1 for others.

Chanakya Strategies exit poll said the BJP and allies are likely to get 39-44 seats, the AAP is likely to get 25-28, while Congress may get 2-3.

Two surveys predicted AAP's victory - Wee Preside, which gave 46-52 seats for AAP, 18-23 for BJP and 0-1 for Congress, and Mind Brink Media predicted 44-49 seats for AAP, 21-25 for BJP and 0-1 for the Congress.

Matrize exit poll predicted a close contest, giving the BJP led NDA 35-40 seats, while the AAP was said to get 32 to 37 seats. The survey gave Congress 0-1 seats.

The DV Research exit polls predicted 26-34 seats for the AAP, and 36-44 for the BJP and allies, giving zero seats to the Congress.

In the 70 member Delhi assembly, 36 is the majority mark. The AAP currently has 62 MLAs, the BJP has eight, and the Congress none.

In 1993, the BJP won 49 of the 70 seats. It failed to cross the 25 seat mark in all subsequent elections barring 2013. In 2013, which resulted in a hung assembly, the BJP fell short of the majority mark but emerged the single largest party with 31 seats. The BJP’s vote share over the last decade in the Delhi Assembly polls has increased from 33.07 per cent in 2013 to 38.51 per cent in 2020. However, AAP secured a vote share of 54.34 per cent and 53.57 per cent in 2015 and 2020, respectively.

Exit polls predicted a couple of seats for the Congress, suggesting that its vote share could increase in this round of the Assembly polls. The Congress secured a poor vote share of 4.26 per cent in the 2020 Assembly polls, failing to win any seats.