Second Covid-19 wave may last 100 days, peak in April-end: SBI report

India is seeing a second wave of Covid-19 infections since February 15, which may last for 100 days, said State Bank of India’s (SBI) research in a report. The rise in cases is leading to a decline in the Business Activity Index, it said, but warned against fresh lockdowns.

The latest value of the index, based on high-frequency indicators, was 101.7, lowest in one month, while the Google mobility index has also shown a decline in a number of states, according to the report titled Second wave of infections: The beginning of the end? The Business Activity Index last week was 104.6.

“Maharashtra alone accounts for the majority of the daily new cases currently. Considering the number of days from the current level of daily new cases to the peak level during the first wave, India might reach the peak in the second half of April,” the report said.

Lauding the inoculation drive, it said India has a much higher vaccination rate per hundred people than other countries. And this will help the country handle the second wave better, it said. “Injection to infection ratio shows India doing best across emerging economies.”

Authored by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at SBI, the report said imposing any kind of lockdown or restrictions would not help the situation as the cases and death rate both seem to be unaffected by lockdown or restrictions imposed.

India can vaccinate the entire population above 45 years of age by July 21 at consistent 4.5 million inoculations per day and the entire population can be vaccinated in 21 months. Currently, India’s peak vaccination rate is 3.4 million inoculations per day.

The report says international travel has gathered pace and air travel, in general, has slowly inched towards the level it was at in the initial phase of Covid-19 in 2020.

State Bank of India