Tata Motors stock falls 6% amid concerns over free cash flow, Donald Trump’s threat

Shares of Tata Motors closed in the red on Monday wiping out more than Rs 5,000 crore from its market valuation, partly because brokerages raised concerns over the firm’s free cash flows due to the higher-than-expected capex and lower volumes. Moreover, US President Donald Trump’s tweet on June 22 escalated the worries of investors. Trump threatened to impose a 20% tariff on all US imports of cars assembled in Europe unless it removed import duties and other barriers to US goods.

The stock hit an intra-day low of Rs 288, before closing the session 5.94% lower at Rs 289.85, with the automaker losing around Rs 6,034 crore of its market capitalisation.

The market cap of Tata Motors stood at Rs 92,143.3 crore on Monday, against Rs 98,177.45 crore on Friday. Additionally, share price of Tata Motors has recorded a steeper decline of 32.78% since the beginning of the year with Rs 42,733.6 crore worth market cap loss.

“Free cash flow (FCF) is likely to remain negative, we expect sharp dip from GBP 1.2 billion in FY18 to GBP 100 million in FY20. Our concern on Free Cash Flow (FCF) is due to the higher-than-expected capex and lower volumes. Moreover, we perceive normalising margin in China as an incremental negative,” said Edelweiss Securities in a report.

During its analyst meet, the company said volume growth will remain subdued due to Brexit uncertainty and continued high incentives in the US market. However, it is confident with regard to its target to achieve an EBIT margin of 4-7% over FY2019-21 and 7-9% over the long-term.

“JLR has effectively bridged the technological gap with peers over the past eight years, enabling it to be at the fore front of electrification and adopt flexible manufacturing,” added Edelweiss in a report.

However, it warned that increasing average portfolio age for JLR and higher discounting are likely to cap margin expansion. “We expect FCF generation of domestic business to remain under pressure given huge capex and continued pressure on market share,” explained analysts at Edelweiss Securities.

The S&P BSE Auto index and the Nifty Auto Index too ended the day lower by 1.51% and 1.61% at 24,302.64 points and 10,910.45 points respectively.

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